Election Edge bot: 47% in 12 months — here's exactly how

Most prediction-market traders lose money. The data is brutal: 83% are net negative after one year. The two reasons are always the same — too much emotion, not enough discipline. Election Edge attacks both.

The strategy is mean reversion on political markets. When a US-election or EU-election market on Polymarket moves more than 3 percentage points in 24 hours, the bot opens a small position in the opposite direction. The thesis: short-term polling noise rarely translates to fundamental shifts. Markets revert in days, not weeks.

Twelve months of live trading: +47% net of platform fees. The smoothness label is 'Very good' — meaning the line goes up without stomach-churning drawdowns. The biggest dip was -8% in March, recovered within nine trading days.

Three lessons. One: size your position at 1-2% of capital per trade. Two: respect the cooldown — the bot waits 12 hours after a trigger before considering the same market again, which prevents over-fitting to single events. Three: when implied volatility is sky-high (a debate night, an indictment), the bot sits out. Don't trade noise; let it pass.

If you want to use this bot, head to the marketplace and click 'Use this bot' on Election Edge. We'll handle the wallet, the gas, the execution. You keep your USDC the whole time.